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Tropical Storm ALVIN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
0300 UTC WED MAY 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 129N 1148W 34 13  17(30)   4(34)   2(36)   1(37)   X(37)   1(38)
 12 129N 1148W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 129N 1148W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 131N 1158W 34  1  20(21)  12(33)   4(37)   1(38)   1(39)   1(40)
 24 131N 1158W 50  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 131N 1158W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 132N 1168W 34  X   7( 7)  20(27)   8(35)   3(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 36 132N 1168W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 132N 1168W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 132N 1178W 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  12(27)   6(33)   2(35)   X(35)
 48 132N 1178W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 48 132N 1178W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 130N 1193W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   9(21)   4(25)   X(25)
 72 130N 1193W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 130N 1193W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 127N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   1(17)
 96 127N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 127N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 122N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
120 122N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 122N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      40      40      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC