Tropical Storm ALVIN
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TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
0300 UTC WED MAY 30 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 129N 1148W 34 13 17(30) 4(34) 2(36) 1(37) X(37) 1(38)
12 129N 1148W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
12 129N 1148W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 131N 1158W 34 1 20(21) 12(33) 4(37) 1(38) 1(39) 1(40)
24 131N 1158W 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 131N 1158W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 132N 1168W 34 X 7( 7) 20(27) 8(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39)
36 132N 1168W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
36 132N 1168W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 132N 1178W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35)
48 132N 1178W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
48 132N 1178W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 130N 1193W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 4(25) X(25)
72 130N 1193W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
72 130N 1193W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 127N 1205W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 1(17)
96 127N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
96 127N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 122N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)
120 122N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 122N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 40 40 35
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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