Tropical Storm ALVIN
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TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
1500 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 125N 1148W 34 77 4(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
12 125N 1148W 50 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
12 125N 1148W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 124N 1156W 34 36 24(60) 9(69) 1(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72)
24 124N 1156W 50 1 9(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
24 124N 1156W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 124N 1168W 34 3 23(26) 24(50) 4(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57)
36 124N 1168W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
36 124N 1168W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 125N 1179W 34 1 6( 7) 23(30) 9(39) 7(46) 2(48) X(48)
48 125N 1179W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
48 125N 1179W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 125N 1195W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 11(27) 3(30) X(30)
72 125N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 125N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 125N 1205W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 9(17) 4(21) X(21)
96 125N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 125N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 125N 1215W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14)
120 125N 1215W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
120 125N 1215W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 45 45 40 35
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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