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Tropical Storm ALVIN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
0300 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 124N 1144W 34 56   8(64)   3(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 12 124N 1144W 50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 124N 1144W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 123N 1154W 34 16  30(46)   8(54)   2(56)   1(57)   1(58)   X(58)
 24 123N 1154W 50  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 123N 1154W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 122N 1164W 34  2  21(23)  19(42)   6(48)   2(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 36 122N 1164W 50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 122N 1164W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 121N 1175W 34  X   7( 7)  18(25)  11(36)   7(43)   2(45)   1(46)
 48 121N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 121N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 120N 1190W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)  10(27)   3(30)   1(31)
 72 120N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 72 120N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 120N 1202W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)   4(21)   1(22)
 96 120N 1202W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 96 120N 1202W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 120N 1215W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   2(14)
120 120N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
120 120N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      45      40      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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