ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 800 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION BECAME FULLY EXPOSED WITH VIRTUALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. AT THAT TIME...ALVIN COULD ALMOST HARDLY BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 30 KT. THEREFORE...ALVIN REMAINS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALVIN HAS CERTAINLY STRUGGLED IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND SINCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS KEEP ALVIN'S INTENSITY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH THE CYCLONE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3. IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALVIN HAS BEGUN TO FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 13.2N 115.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 13.2N 115.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 13.2N 116.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 117.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 12.9N 118.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 12.4N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0000Z 11.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/0000Z 10.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC