ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 200 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALVIN HAS BECOME DISTORTED. THE MAIN CENTER...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA...SEEMS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THE GRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...A 1313 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE FALLING... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS. IT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY WHY THIS SYSTEM HAS FAILED TO INTENSIFY...AND SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY GETTING LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO FORECAST ANYTHING BUT SLOW WEAKENING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/3. A STOUT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALVIN SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD TURN SOON... FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH...THOUGH THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM VIRTUALLY STATIONARY AS ALVIN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NUDGED SOUTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 13.4N 115.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 115.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 13.5N 116.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 13.4N 117.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 13.1N 118.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 12.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/1800Z 11.7N 120.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1800Z 10.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC