ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007 LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALVIN HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...NEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP. EVEN STILL...ALVIN LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED AND MAY FINALLY BE SUCCUMBING TO THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS PLAGUED THIS CYCLONE SINCE ITS INCEPTION. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT ALVIN HAS DROPPED BELOW STORM FORCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THUS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND ALVIN'S EXPECTED TRACK WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. NONE OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ALVIN REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST...DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS POSSIBLE. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 13.0N 114.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 13.1N 115.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 13.2N 115.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 13.2N 116.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 13.2N 117.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 13.0N 119.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 12.5N 120.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 11.5N 122.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC