ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007 THE CENTER OF ALVIN CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AIDED IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ALVIN HAS BECOME RATHER POOR THIS EVENING WITH THE CYCLONE CONSISTING OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL ESTIMATE WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF ALVIN APPEAR LESS THAN IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE CYCLONE'S MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE...IT IS TEMPTING TO BACK OFF ON THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR NOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALVIN IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ALVIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO A MORE NORTHERN INITIAL LOCATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 12.8N 114.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 12.9N 114.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.1N 115.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 13.2N 116.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 13.2N 117.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 119.3W 40 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 12.7N 120.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 12.2N 122.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC