Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ALVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007

THE CENTER OF ALVIN CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AIDED IN LOCATING THE CENTER.   
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ALVIN HAS BECOME RATHER POOR THIS
EVENING WITH THE CYCLONE CONSISTING OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER 
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL ESTIMATE WILL
BE KEPT AT 35 KT.  

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF ALVIN APPEAR LESS THAN IDEAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE CYCLONE'S MAIN INHIBITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE APPEARANCE...IT IS TEMPTING TO BACK OFF ON THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR NOW. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
ALVIN IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW ALVIN TO MOVE A LITTLE
FASTER IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO A MORE NORTHERN INITIAL
LOCATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 12.8N 114.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 12.9N 114.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.1N 115.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 13.2N 116.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.2N 117.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 13.0N 119.3W    40 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 12.7N 120.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 12.2N 122.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC