ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ALVIN USING CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...HOWEVER A MICROWAVE PASS FROM SSMI-S HELPED TO RE-POSITION THE CENTER BACK TOWARD THE EAST A BIT. AFTER A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING... THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED AND DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. AT 1338Z...A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A COUPLE OF RELIABLE 35 KT VECTORS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF 40 KT VECTORS. BASED ON THE DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO STILL BE TOO STABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/2. ALVIN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALVIN TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 12.6N 114.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.6N 114.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.6N 115.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 12.6N 116.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 12.6N 117.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 12.5N 119.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 12.3N 120.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 12.0N 122.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC