Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ALVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007
 
ALVIN DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THIS PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
COUNTERINTUITIVE GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE CYCLONE.  IT MAY BE THAT CONVECTION IS SIMPLY FAVORING THE
BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...ALVIN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE SO SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THE ONLY FACTOR FAVORING
INTENSIFICATION IS THE CYCLONE'S EXPECTED TRACK OVER 28C WATER
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
REFLECTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND
SHOWS ALVIN REACHING 45 KT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON.
 
WHILE THE CENTER OF ALVIN REMAINS ELUSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
OVERALL CLOUD MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/5 IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC STEERING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  UNDER THIS REGIME...ALVIN SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS
THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AS LONG AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS...THE
CENTER WILL BE PULLED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 12.5N 114.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 12.3N 114.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 12.2N 115.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 12.2N 117.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 12.2N 119.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 12.2N 120.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 12.2N 121.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC