ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 200 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2007 ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DIPPED A LITTLE SOUTH...SO HAS THE CONVECTION. THERE IS A PARTLY-EXPOSED CLOUD SWIRL ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SWIRL SUGGESTS IT MAY NOT BE THE ONLY CENTER. NEVERTHELESS...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS JUST MISSED THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ...ALTHOUGH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT STEERING CURRENTS MIGHT WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE ECMWF. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR A GREAT DEAL OF INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER 28C WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO I DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY THE DEPRESSION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO REACH AND MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 12.8N 113.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 12.7N 114.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 12.6N 115.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 12.5N 116.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 12.5N 117.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 12.5N 118.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 12.5N 120.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 12.5N 121.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC