Tropical Depression ONE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
200 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2007
 
ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
HAS DIPPED A LITTLE SOUTH...SO HAS THE CONVECTION.  THERE IS A
PARTLY-EXPOSED CLOUD SWIRL ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE...BUT THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS SWIRL SUGGESTS IT MAY NOT BE THE ONLY CENTER. 
NEVERTHELESS...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS JUST MISSED THE CYCLONE. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 30 KT...AND
THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
STEERING CURRENTS MIGHT WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE ECMWF.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT.  ALTHOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD NOT SEEM
TO FAVOR A GREAT DEAL OF INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MOVING OVER 28C WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO I DON'T SEE ANY
REASON WHY THE DEPRESSION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO REACH AND MAINTAIN
STORM STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.   

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 12.8N 113.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 12.7N 114.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 12.6N 115.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 12.5N 116.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 12.5N 117.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 12.5N 118.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 12.5N 120.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 12.5N 121.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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