ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007 DEEP CONVECTION STARTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT 23Z...AND IT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN. CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME AS COLD AS -80C... FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE COMEBACK CERTAINLY MEANS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT SINCE IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING MIGHTILY TODAY...IT IS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL STRENGTHEN MUCH IN THE LONG TERM. THE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGE. MEANWHILE THE SSTS AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY BEYOND 36 HOURS...WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGE SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOW WESTWARD OR 270/4...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CAUSING A RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE... HOWEVER...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 15N/125W AND WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM MOVING TOO MUCH TOWARD THE WEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OF A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO RESUME WHEN THE CYCLONE FINDS ITSELF SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 13.0N 111.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 12.9N 112.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 12.8N 113.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 12.7N 113.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 12.6N 114.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 12.5N 116.2W 35 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:54 UTC