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Tropical Storm OLGA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007               
0300 UTC WED DEC 12 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 190N  730W 34 11   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 12 190N  730W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 190N  730W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 195N  760W 34  X   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 195N  760W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 195N  760W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 195N  785W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 36 195N  785W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 195N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 195N  800W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 195N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 195N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 195N  830W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 195N  830W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 195N  830W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      25      25      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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