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Subtropical Storm OLGA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007               
1500 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND TURK     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   7( 7)  12(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LES CAYES      34  X  23(23)   8(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  4  35(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  7  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 20   9(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34 63   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
PONCE          34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAN JUAN       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 180N  705W 34 24  10(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 12 180N  705W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 180N  705W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 181N  740W 34  X  19(19)   9(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 24 181N  740W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 181N  740W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 182N  774W 34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 36 182N  774W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 182N  774W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 182N  805W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 182N  805W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 182N  805W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 180N  850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 180N  850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 180N  850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      30      25      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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