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Hurricane NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
0900 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  43(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  50(62)   X(62)   X(62)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   X(24)   X(24)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  42(42)  27(69)   X(69)   X(69)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  19(28)   X(28)   X(28)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  37(63)   X(63)   X(63)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)  13(43)   X(43)   X(43)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  63(66)  12(78)   X(78)   X(78)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)  13(42)   X(42)   X(42)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)  13(13)  60(73)   4(77)   X(77)   X(77)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  37(38)   4(42)   X(42)   X(42)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  47(48)  22(70)   X(70)   X(70)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  17(35)   X(35)   X(35)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  51(54)  12(66)   X(66)   X(66)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  10(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  45(50)   6(56)   X(56)   X(56)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   6(23)   X(23)   X(23)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  31(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)  15(15)   8(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)  32(32)  11(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)  42(42)   9(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)  19(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   1( 1)  18(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 312N  736W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 312N  736W 50 79   5(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 12 312N  736W 64 29   7(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 24 354N  712W 34  5  85(90)   3(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 354N  712W 50  X  51(51)  10(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 24 354N  712W 64  X  17(17)   6(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 36 400N  687W 34  X   4( 4)  74(78)   7(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 36 400N  687W 50  X   X( X)  40(40)  12(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 36 400N  687W 64  X   X( X)  16(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 48 449N  650W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  61(65)  12(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 48 449N  650W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)  12(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 48 449N  650W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 560N  565W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   8(47)   X(47)
 72 560N  565W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)
 72 560N  565W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 645N  500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   X(21)
 96 645N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 96 645N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     70      75      75      65      40       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC