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TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC THU NOV 01 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 4(34) X(34)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 4(48) X(48)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 5(59) X(59)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) 1(62) X(62)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 2(59) X(59)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) X(44) X(44)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 65(66) 1(67) X(67)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) X(58) X(58)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 2(56) X(56)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 1(51) X(51)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) X(41) X(41)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25) X(25)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
ANDROS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 276N 758W 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 276N 758W 50 62 4(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
12 276N 758W 64 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
24 307N 738W 34 4 76(80) 7(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
24 307N 738W 50 X 36(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
24 307N 738W 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
36 345N 715W 34 X 4( 4) 56(60) 12(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
36 345N 715W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
36 345N 715W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
48 390N 685W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 53(56) 14(70) X(70) X(70)
48 390N 685W 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33)
48 390N 685W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
72 505N 605W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 11(55) X(55)
72 505N 605W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22)
72 505N 605W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
96 600N 525W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) X(35)
96 600N 525W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13)
96 600N 525W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60 60 60 70 75 65 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC