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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
0900 UTC THU NOV 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   2(17)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   2(30)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  33(39)   1(40)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  34(40)   1(41)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  29(36)   1(37)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  21(39)   X(39)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  25(39)   1(40)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  20(44)   X(44)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  11(33)   1(34)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   5(23)   X(23)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   9(18)   1(19)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)   X(17)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   4(14)   X(14)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 11   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MIAMI FL       34 15   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34 48  13(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 91   5(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 54  16(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  6   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANDROS         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ANDROS         50 60   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
ANDROS         64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 20   9(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  7  10(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 250N  781W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 250N  781W 50 57   7(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 12 250N  781W 64  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 24 272N  762W 34 12  67(79)   6(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 24 272N  762W 50  1  32(33)   7(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 24 272N  762W 64  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 36 305N  734W 34  X   3( 3)  47(50)   8(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 36 305N  734W 50  X   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 36 305N  734W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 348N  701W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  35(36)  11(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 48 348N  701W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 348N  701W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 435N  630W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  11(42)   X(42)
 72 435N  630W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   X(15)
 72 435N  630W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 530N  525W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)  10(37)
 96 530N  525W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)
 96 530N  525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
 
120 575N  425W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)
120 575N  425W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
120 575N  425W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     60      55      55      60      60      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC