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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   8(28)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   7(38)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   8(36)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   7(34)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)   3(34)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  31(32)   3(35)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  34(38)   2(40)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  25(28)   1(29)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   1(19)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   1(18)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   1(15)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MIAMI FL       34  6   9(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MARATHON FL    34  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  4  27(31)   9(40)   X(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 22  50(72)   7(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X  18(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34 49  26(75)   2(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ANDROS         50  2  14(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  7  15(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  2   8(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34 10   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 235N  790W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 235N  790W 50 17   7(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 12 235N  790W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 253N  781W 34 24  50(74)   6(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 24 253N  781W 50  1  20(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 24 253N  781W 64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 280N  760W 34  X   8( 8)  38(46)   8(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 36 280N  760W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 36 280N  760W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 315N  725W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)  10(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 48 315N  725W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 315N  725W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 390N  660W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  11(42)   X(42)
 72 390N  660W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)
 72 390N  660W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 490N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   9(34)
 96 490N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
 96 490N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 600N  475W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)
120 600N  475W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
120 600N  475W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      50      55      60      60      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC