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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  1   5( 6)  12(18)   9(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   7( 8)  15(23)   8(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  1   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   2( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   2(14)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  1   9(10)  21(31)  13(44)   5(49)   X(49)   X(49)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 10  28(38)  23(61)   8(69)   5(74)   X(74)   X(74)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   4( 4)  14(18)   8(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ANDROS         34 33  33(66)  12(78)   2(80)   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)
ANDROS         50  1  16(17)  14(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ANDROS         64  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 47  10(57)   5(62)   2(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
GREAT EXUMA    50  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34 12   7(19)   7(26)   5(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
HAVANA         34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  1   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAMAGUEY       34 21  22(43)   5(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
CAMAGUEY       50  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 222N  774W 34 74  12(86)   2(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 222N  774W 50 28  13(41)   2(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 12 222N  774W 64  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 24 233N  782W 34 44  30(74)   6(80)   2(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 233N  782W 50  5  29(34)   9(43)   1(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 24 233N  782W 64  X   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 245N  785W 34 12  36(48)  19(67)   6(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 36 245N  785W 50  X  11(11)  20(31)   7(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 36 245N  785W 64  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 260N  778W 34  3  14(17)  26(43)  15(58)   6(64)   1(65)   X(65)
 48 260N  778W 50  X   1( 1)   9(10)  14(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 48 260N  778W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 310N  724W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   7(25)   X(25)
 72 310N  724W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 72 310N  724W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 370N  665W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   7(21)
 96 370N  665W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 96 370N  665W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 450N  580W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
120 450N  580W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
120 450N  580W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     60      65      60      45      45      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC