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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   6(19)   1(20)   X(20)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   7(21)   6(27)   1(28)   X(28)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   6( 6)  13(19)   8(27)   5(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   5(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  1   7( 8)  17(25)  11(36)   9(45)   1(46)   X(46)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  6  29(35)  19(54)   5(59)   4(63)   X(63)   X(63)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34 15  45(60)  11(71)   2(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ANDROS         50  X  13(13)  11(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ANDROS         64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 53  16(69)   3(72)   1(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)
GREAT EXUMA    50  2   8(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34 24   8(32)   4(36)   1(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GRAND TURK     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  5  14(19)   5(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 19   2(21)   1(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 222N  763W 34 79   9(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 12 222N  763W 50 13  11(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 222N  763W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 233N  776W 34 28  41(69)   5(74)   2(76)   1(77)   X(77)   1(78)
 24 233N  776W 50  1  20(21)   8(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 24 233N  776W 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 244N  784W 34  5  36(41)  19(60)   4(64)   3(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 36 244N  784W 50  X   6( 6)  12(18)   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 36 244N  784W 64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 255N  785W 34  2  18(20)  23(43)   8(51)   6(57)   X(57)   1(58)
 48 255N  785W 50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 48 255N  785W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 285N  755W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)  18(26)   5(31)   1(32)
 72 285N  755W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 72 285N  755W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 330N  700W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   5(20)
 96 330N  700W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 96 330N  700W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 380N  640W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
120 380N  640W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 380N  640W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      55      50      45      45      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC