Tropical Storm NOEL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 1(14)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 12(26) 9(35) 1(36) X(36)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 11(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 7( 7) 18(25) 13(38) 8(46) 2(48) X(48)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 35(37) 19(56) 4(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANDROS 34 4 46(50) 13(63) 3(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70)
ANDROS 50 X 10(10) 9(19) 1(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
ANDROS 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 46 32(78) 2(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81)
GREAT EXUMA 50 2 11(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
SAN SALVADOR 34 28 12(40) 2(42) 1(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
CAMAGUEY 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 7 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 224N 756W 34 72 12(84) X(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85)
12 224N 756W 50 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
12 224N 756W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 237N 772W 34 9 51(60) 8(68) 2(70) 2(72) 1(73) X(73)
24 237N 772W 50 X 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22)
24 237N 772W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 247N 785W 34 1 26(27) 24(51) 6(57) 4(61) X(61) X(61)
36 247N 785W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20)
36 247N 785W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 258N 790W 34 1 10(11) 24(35) 11(46) 6(52) 1(53) X(53)
48 258N 790W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17)
48 258N 790W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 275N 775W 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 10(26) 13(39) 4(43) 1(44)
72 275N 775W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11)
72 275N 775W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 310N 730W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17)
96 310N 730W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
96 310N 730W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 350N 680W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
120 350N 680W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 350N 680W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 50 50 50 45 40 35
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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