Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   9(26)   1(27)   X(27)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   3( 3)  11(14)  12(26)   9(35)   1(36)   X(36)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   4( 4)  14(18)  11(29)   8(37)   1(38)   X(38)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   6(22)   1(23)   X(23)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   6(18)   1(19)   X(19)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   7( 7)  18(25)  13(38)   8(46)   2(48)   X(48)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2  35(37)  19(56)   4(60)   2(62)   1(63)   X(63)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  4  46(50)  13(63)   3(66)   4(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ANDROS         50  X  10(10)   9(19)   1(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ANDROS         64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 46  32(78)   2(80)   X(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)
GREAT EXUMA    50  2  11(13)   1(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34 28  12(40)   2(42)   1(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GRAND TURK     34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
HAVANA         34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  7   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 224N  756W 34 72  12(84)   X(84)   X(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 224N  756W 50  6   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 12 224N  756W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 237N  772W 34  9  51(60)   8(68)   2(70)   2(72)   1(73)   X(73)
 24 237N  772W 50  X  13(13)   6(19)   1(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 24 237N  772W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 247N  785W 34  1  26(27)  24(51)   6(57)   4(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 36 247N  785W 50  X   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 36 247N  785W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 258N  790W 34  1  10(11)  24(35)  11(46)   6(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 48 258N  790W 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   X(16)   1(17)
 48 258N  790W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 275N  775W 34  X   5( 5)  11(16)  10(26)  13(39)   4(43)   1(44)
 72 275N  775W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 72 275N  775W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 310N  730W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   3(17)
 96 310N  730W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 96 310N  730W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 350N  680W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
120 350N  680W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 350N  680W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     50      50      50      45      40      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC