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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   1(15)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   1(15)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   9(22)   4(26)   1(27)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  16(31)  11(42)   2(44)   1(45)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  13(28)   9(37)   2(39)   1(40)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  2  19(21)  24(45)   5(50)   5(55)   2(57)   1(58)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  3  26(29)  21(50)   6(56)   3(59)   X(59)   1(60)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 37  20(57)   5(62)   1(63)   X(63)   1(64)   X(64)
MAYAGUANA      50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  8   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   1(17)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 212N  737W 34 75   7(82)   1(83)   X(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 12 212N  737W 50  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 12 212N  737W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 224N  744W 34 29  34(63)   6(69)   1(70)   3(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 24 224N  744W 50  X   9( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 24 224N  744W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 234N  754W 34  3  28(31)  21(52)   4(56)   5(61)   1(62)   1(63)
 36 234N  754W 50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)   1(19)
 36 234N  754W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 243N  767W 34  X   7( 7)  22(29)  11(40)   8(48)   2(50)   1(51)
 48 243N  767W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 48 243N  767W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 260N  765W 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  16(31)  10(41)   4(45)   1(46)
 72 260N  765W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   1(15)
 72 260N  765W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 280N  750W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  11(20)   6(26)   2(28)
 96 280N  750W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 96 280N  750W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 300N  725W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   3(14)
120 300N  725W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
120 300N  725W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      50      45      40      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC