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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   2(20)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)  15(29)   6(35)   X(35)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)  12(30)   4(34)   X(34)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  15(37)  10(47)   3(50)   1(51)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   2(18)   X(18)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  14(33)  12(45)   2(47)   1(48)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X  15(15)  15(30)   5(35)   3(38)   1(39)   X(39)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
GRAND TURK     34  2   4( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   1(16)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 194N  729W 34 22   7(29)   2(31)   2(33)   1(34)   X(34)   1(35)
 12 194N  729W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 194N  729W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 211N  740W 34  1  24(25)  13(38)   4(42)   3(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 24 211N  740W 50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 211N  740W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 222N  750W 34  X   9( 9)  28(37)   7(44)   5(49)   1(50)   1(51)
 36 222N  750W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   1(16)   1(17)
 36 222N  750W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 230N  758W 34  X   3( 3)  22(25)  13(38)   8(46)   3(49)   X(49)
 48 230N  758W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 48 230N  758W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 260N  760W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  19(33)   8(41)   1(42)
 72 260N  760W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)
 72 260N  760W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
 96 290N  740W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  12(24)   5(29)
 96 290N  740W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 96 290N  740W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 320N  700W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
120 320N  700W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
120 320N  700W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     40      50      55      55      50      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC