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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  13(23)   5(28)   1(29)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)  12(28)   4(32)   1(33)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   3( 3)  15(18)  16(34)  11(45)   3(48)   1(49)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)   1(16)   1(17)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  10(22)  13(35)   4(39)   2(41)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  1   9(10)  10(20)   4(24)   4(28)   2(30)   1(31)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  2   6( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   2(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   7(19)   5(24)   1(25)   1(26)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2  36(38)  14(52)   3(55)   2(57)   X(57)   1(58)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X  12(12)  11(23)   1(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KINGSTON       34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
LES CAYES      34 34  12(46)   2(48)   1(49)   X(49)   1(50)   X(50)
LES CAYES      50  8   9(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 76   4(80)   X(80)   X(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 10   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 183N  732W 34 76   6(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 12 183N  732W 50 22   5(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 12 183N  732W 64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 197N  745W 34  7  49(56)   7(63)   2(65)   1(66)   1(67)   X(67)
 24 197N  745W 50  X  23(23)   6(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 24 197N  745W 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 210N  757W 34  1  15(16)  30(46)   5(51)   3(54)   1(55)   1(56)
 36 210N  757W 50  X   2( 2)  15(17)   4(21)   1(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 36 210N  757W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 224N  761W 34  X   6( 6)  25(31)  12(43)   6(49)   2(51)   X(51)
 48 224N  761W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   4(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 48 224N  761W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 250N  760W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)  16(31)   6(37)   2(39)
 72 250N  760W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 72 250N  760W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 280N  745W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  11(23)   4(27)
 96 280N  745W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 96 280N  745W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 310N  720W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)
120 310N  720W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 310N  720W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     60      55      55      55      50      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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