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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   5(18)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   5(22)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  12(21)   6(27)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  12(20)   5(25)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   6(19)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   6(19)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   5(24)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  10(23)   5(28)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   7(18)   5(23)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   6(17)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  10(21)   5(26)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  10(22)   3(25)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)  11(31)   4(35)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  15(28)   7(35)   2(37)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   3( 3)  15(18)   6(24)   4(28)   3(31)   1(32)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   8(21)   3(24)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)   8(25)   6(31)   2(33)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   8(19)   4(23)   6(29)   1(30)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  1  20(21)  11(32)   2(34)   1(35)   2(37)   1(38)
LES CAYES      50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   2(14)   X(14)   2(16)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 166N  726W 34 18  10(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   1(31)
 12 166N  726W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 166N  726W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 177N  742W 34  1  23(24)  11(35)   2(37)   1(38)   2(40)   1(41)
 24 177N  742W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 177N  742W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 188N  760W 34  X   4( 4)  23(27)   8(35)   4(39)   4(43)   1(44)
 36 188N  760W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 36 188N  760W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 48 196N  776W 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  16(25)   9(34)   6(40)   1(41)
 48 196N  776W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 48 196N  776W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 210N  800W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  19(27)  10(37)   3(40)
 72 210N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
 72 210N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 225N  800W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)  11(31)   5(36)
 96 225N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 96 225N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 250N  785W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   6(26)
120 250N  785W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
120 250N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      60      60      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC