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Tropical Storm NOEL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2007
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.  THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  72.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  72.3W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  72.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.4N  72.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.1N  74.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.2N  75.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N  75.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N  70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  72.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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