Tropical Storm NOEL

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TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  72.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  72.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  72.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.3N  73.2W...INLAND OVER HAITI
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.7N  74.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.0N  75.7W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT. 
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N  76.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N  74.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N  72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  72.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 
 
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