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Tropical Storm MELISSA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N  330W 34 26  14(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 12 172N  330W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 172N  330W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 183N  351W 34  1  17(18)   6(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 24 183N  351W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 183N  351W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 193N  371W 34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 36 193N  371W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 193N  371W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 205N  392W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 48 205N  392W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 205N  392W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 230N  425W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 72 230N  425W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 230N  425W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 260N  445W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 96 260N  445W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 96 260N  445W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      30      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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