Tropical Storm MELISSA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 165N  316W 34 58   8(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 12 165N  316W 50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 165N  316W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 174N  337W 34  3  26(29)   5(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 24 174N  337W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 174N  337W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 184N  358W 34  X   4( 4)  16(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 36 184N  358W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 184N  358W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 195N  380W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 48 195N  380W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 195N  380W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 220N  420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 220N  420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 220N  420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 245N  445W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 96 245N  445W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 245N  445W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     35      35      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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