Tropical Storm MELISSA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 163N  309W 34 47   7(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 12 163N  309W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 163N  309W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 170N  330W 34  3  29(32)   8(40)   X(40)   X(40)   1(41)   X(41)
 24 170N  330W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 24 170N  330W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 180N  350W 34  X   6( 6)  19(25)   5(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 36 180N  350W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 180N  350W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 190N  370W 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 48 190N  370W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 48 190N  370W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 215N  410W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 72 215N  410W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 215N  410W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 240N  440W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 96 240N  440W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 240N  440W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 260N  450W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
120 260N  450W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 260N  450W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      30      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN