Tropical Storm MELISSA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 156N  294W 34 52   6(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 12 156N  294W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 156N  294W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 165N  310W 34  6  26(32)   7(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 24 165N  310W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 165N  310W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 176N  334W 34  X   3( 3)  20(23)   5(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)
 36 176N  334W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 176N  334W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 185N  355W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 48 185N  355W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 185N  355W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 200N  391W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
 72 200N  391W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 72 200N  391W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 215N  420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 96 215N  420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 96 215N  420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 235N  450W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 235N  450W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 235N  450W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      30      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN