Tropical Storm MELISSA

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TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  27.4W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  27.4W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  27.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N  28.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.8N  30.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.5N  32.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N  34.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N  38.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N  42.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N  45.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  27.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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