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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007               
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   8(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   5(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 208N  949W 34 11  15(26)  10(36)   3(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 12 208N  949W 50  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 208N  949W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 206N  949W 34 10  14(24)  12(36)   3(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 24 206N  949W 50  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 206N  949W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 203N  957W 34  5  11(16)  15(31)   6(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 36 203N  957W 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 203N  957W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 201N  966W 34  X   6( 6)  13(19)   7(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 48 201N  966W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 201N  966W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 200N  980W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 72 200N  980W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 200N  980W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     35      40      45      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:51 UTC