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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007               
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   8(14)   3(17)   X(17)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   7(19)   4(23)   X(23)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   5(15)   4(19)   X(19)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 215N  955W 34  4   9(13)   5(18)   9(27)   5(32)   3(35)   X(35)
 12 215N  955W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 12 215N  955W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 213N  954W 34  4   8(12)   7(19)   8(27)   5(32)   3(35)   X(35)
 24 213N  954W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 24 213N  954W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 211N  953W 34  3   8(11)   7(18)   8(26)   6(32)   2(34)   X(34)
 36 211N  953W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 36 211N  953W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 209N  956W 34  2   9(11)   7(18)   8(26)   5(31)   3(34)   X(34)
 48 209N  956W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 48 209N  956W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 205N  965W 34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   9(20)   6(26)   3(29)   X(29)
 72 205N  965W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 72 205N  965W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 200N  980W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   4(15)   X(15)
 96 200N  980W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 200N  980W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     30      35      40      50      30       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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