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Tropical Storm KAREN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 146N  483W 34 87   4(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 146N  483W 50 41  11(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 12 146N  483W 64  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 158N  502W 34 10  49(59)   7(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 24 158N  502W 50  1  25(26)   7(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 158N  502W 64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 169N  519W 34  1  15(16)  26(42)   6(48)   2(50)   X(50)   1(51)
 36 169N  519W 50  X   3( 3)  12(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)   1(21)
 36 169N  519W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 181N  537W 34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  17(28)   7(35)   1(36)   1(37)
 48 181N  537W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 48 181N  537W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 200N  560W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   7(27)   2(29)
 72 200N  560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 72 200N  560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 215N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)   2(20)
 96 215N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 96 215N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 230N  590W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
120 230N  590W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
120 230N  590W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     50      45      45      40      40      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC