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Tropical Storm KAREN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 132N  451W 34 74  12(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 12 132N  451W 50 22  12(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 12 132N  451W 64  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 24 146N  472W 34  2  59(61)  12(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 24 146N  472W 50  X  23(23)  13(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 24 146N  472W 64  X   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 159N  488W 34  1  11(12)  40(52)   7(59)   3(62)   X(62)   1(63)
 36 159N  488W 50  X   2( 2)  19(21)   7(28)   2(30)   X(30)   1(31)
 36 159N  488W 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
 48 170N  501W 34  X   2( 2)  21(23)  18(41)  10(51)   2(53)   X(53)
 48 170N  501W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   5(22)   1(23)   1(24)
 48 170N  501W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
 
 72 190N  525W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  18(28)   8(36)   3(39)
 72 190N  525W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   4(14)   X(14)
 72 190N  525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 210N  550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)   5(27)
 96 210N  550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 96 210N  550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 230N  570W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   7(19)
120 230N  570W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
120 230N  570W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     65      65      60      55      55      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH                                          
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC