| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm KAREN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 116N  430W 34 46  16(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 12 116N  430W 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 116N  430W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 126N  455W 34  1  43(44)  11(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 126N  455W 50  X   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 24 126N  455W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 138N  476W 34  X   7( 7)  35(42)   9(51)   3(54)   1(55)   X(55)
 36 138N  476W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)   1(16)
 36 138N  476W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 153N  494W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  24(36)   9(45)   2(47)   1(48)
 48 153N  494W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)   1(16)
 48 153N  494W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 177N  514W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  20(30)   7(37)   2(39)
 72 177N  514W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)
 72 177N  514W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 200N  530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  10(23)   4(27)
 96 200N  530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 96 200N  530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 225N  545W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)
120 225N  545W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
120 225N  545W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      55      55      50      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC