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Tropical Storm KAREN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 115N  419W 34 42  14(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 12 115N  419W 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 115N  419W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 123N  446W 34  1  41(42)  13(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 123N  446W 50  X   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 24 123N  446W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 133N  471W 34  X   4( 4)  41(45)   9(54)   3(57)   1(58)   X(58)
 36 133N  471W 50  X   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 36 133N  471W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 147N  488W 34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  25(42)  11(53)   2(55)   X(55)
 48 147N  488W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 48 147N  488W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 175N  510W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  23(32)   8(40)   2(42)
 72 175N  510W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   1(17)
 72 175N  510W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
 
 96 200N  525W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  12(26)   4(30)
 96 200N  525W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
 96 200N  525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 225N  535W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   6(21)
120 225N  535W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
120 225N  535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      55      60      60      55      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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