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Tropical Storm KAREN


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007
 
KAREN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BANDING FEATURES AND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT ITS PRESENTATION ON INFRARED
IMAGERY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LACK MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND...IN FACT...THE OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.  DVORAK SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE HOLDING AT 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED
AND...IF KAREN DEVELOPS SOME MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION...IT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT THE GFS DEPICTS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF 55 W IN 2-3 DAYS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KAREN.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE...AND SHOWS WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3.  THIS IS GENERALLY
BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE BUT IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  THE LGEM VERSION OF SHIPS...WHICH IS MORE
RESPONSIVE TO CHANGES IN SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHOWS
LESS INTENSIFICATION.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 285/13.  A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BY MID-
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE KAREN TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND U.K.
MET OFFICE SOLUTIONS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 11.1N  39.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 11.5N  41.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 12.3N  44.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.3N  47.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 14.7N  48.8W    60 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  51.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N  52.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 22.5N  53.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:49 UTC