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Subtropical Storm JERRY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 373N  458W 34 82   3(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 12 373N  458W 50  7   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 373N  458W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 397N  440W 34  8  60(68)   7(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 24 397N  440W 50  X  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 24 397N  440W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 440N  405W 34  X   1( 1)  46(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 36 440N  405W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 440N  405W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      45       0       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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