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Subtropical Depression TEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102007               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  8   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  8   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 18   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 11  20(31)   5(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
PENSACOLA FL   50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 10   9(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  2  20(22)  13(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MOBILE AL      50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X  16(16)  16(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   8( 8)  10(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   4( 4)  17(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   1( 1)  15(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 297N  866W 34 24  13(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 12 297N  866W 50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 297N  866W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 301N  881W 34  5  23(28)   9(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 24 301N  881W 50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 301N  881W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 306N  903W 34  X   5( 5)  20(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 36 306N  903W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 306N  903W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 315N  930W 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 48 315N  930W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 315N  930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      40      30       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:48 UTC