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Tropical Depression INGRID


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 177N  591W 34 15   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 177N  591W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 12 177N  591W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 184N  603W 34  3  13(16)   6(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)   1(26)
 24 184N  603W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 24 184N  603W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 192N  613W 34  1   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   3(23)   1(24)   1(25)
 36 192N  613W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 36 192N  613W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 200N  622W 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)   5(20)   1(21)   2(23)
 48 200N  622W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 48 200N  622W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 215N  635W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   4(17)   3(20)
 72 215N  635W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 215N  635W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 230N  645W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   2(15)
 96 230N  645W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 230N  645W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 245N  645W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   2(13)
120 245N  645W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 245N  645W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:48 UTC