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Tropical Depression EIGHT


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007               
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 145N  492W 34 26  12(38)   2(40)   1(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 12 145N  492W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 145N  492W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 150N  502W 34  6  20(26)   7(33)   2(35)   2(37)   X(37)   1(38)
 24 150N  502W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 24 150N  502W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 155N  514W 34  1   7( 8)  13(21)   6(27)   4(31)   X(31)   1(32)
 36 155N  514W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 36 155N  514W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 159N  525W 34  X   3( 3)   7(10)  10(20)   7(27)   1(28)   1(29)
 48 159N  525W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 48 159N  525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 170N  554W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   5(22)   1(23)
 72 170N  554W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 72 170N  554W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 180N  580W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   2(16)
 96 180N  580W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 96 180N  580W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 191N  605W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
120 191N  605W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
120 191N  605W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      40      40      35      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC