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Tropical Depression EIGHT


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007               
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 139N  467W 34 23  22(45)   4(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 12 139N  467W 50  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 12 139N  467W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 143N  479W 34  4  36(40)  10(50)   3(53)   3(56)   X(56)   1(57)
 24 143N  479W 50  X   8( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 24 143N  479W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 147N  488W 34  1  23(24)  21(45)   5(50)   5(55)   1(56)   1(57)
 36 147N  488W 50  X   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 36 147N  488W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 151N  498W 34  X   8( 8)  20(28)  12(40)   9(49)   3(52)   X(52)
 48 151N  498W 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   5(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 48 151N  498W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 162N  522W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)  19(32)   8(40)   2(42)
 72 162N  522W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   1(16)
 72 162N  522W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 175N  555W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   5(27)
 96 175N  555W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 96 175N  555W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
 
120 185N  585W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   6(18)
120 185N  585W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
120 185N  585W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     45      50      55      60      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC