Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression INGRID


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEARED AFTER ABOUT 21Z. ANALYSIS OF
THE AMBIGUITIES FROM A 2145Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED WINDS NO
STRONGER THAN 25 KT...AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WERE IN AN ISOLATED AREA
OF SHOWERS ABOUT 80-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE SINCE THEN...SO THE NEW ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 25 KT...DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES. ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW CONTINUED STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR INGRID TO STRENGTHEN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WHEN
THE SHEAR DECREASES A LITTLE...BUT THAT IS ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
STILL EXISTS AT THAT TIME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IT MIGHT NOT BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NEARLY THAT LONG.

THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/8.  INGRID
CONTINUES TO MOVE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE...IT IS
SUCH A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. 
FOR THE SAME REASON...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE LEFT OF
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALONG A
TRACK THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM.  A GRADUAL BEND
TO THE RIGHT IS STILL FORECAST SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
INGRID IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...INGRID OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF IT WILL BE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING REGIME...FAR
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 17.4N  59.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N  60.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.0N  61.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.7N  62.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N  63.6W    25 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 20.5N  65.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 21.5N  66.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N  67.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC