Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression INGRID


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
 
THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT
UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON
HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS
EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL. 

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE
GFDL.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES
HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT
TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 17.0N  56.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  58.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.2N  59.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 19.1N  60.4W    25 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N  61.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 23.5N  64.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC