Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm INGRID


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
 
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0452 UTC AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LIES BENEATH
THE LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE...I WILL HOLD OFF
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNTIL A MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT
CAN BE TAKEN.  SO...INGRID WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF
INGRID WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING INGRID...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
HAMPERING INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGE AND FSSE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 300/6.  INGRID IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTHEAST
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  
BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THAT OF INGRID WILL
DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF STEERING THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.  SINCE INGRID IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
CYCLONE IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 15.1N  49.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  50.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N  51.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.7N  52.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.3N  53.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N  56.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N  58.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N  60.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC