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Tropical Depression EIGHT


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
 
A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW
HOURS.  THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
STORM.  AFTERWARD...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER
MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...REFLECTING AN INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION
OF 285/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING
A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFDL...AND THE GFS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 13.9N  48.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N  49.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  49.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 14.8N  50.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 15.2N  52.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.4W    40 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N  57.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 18.2N  59.6W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC